Market Analysis for 6/26/12

Good morning for Tuesday, June 26th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low, behavior indicating we were on the downside of the MD and MW cycles. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and shown little movement thus far. We are overdue for a MW low to be found, but we are still very right-translated on the recent MW high.

The hourly chart shows price making a lower 24Hr low mid-day yesterday but unable to muster much of a rally into the close. My call for yesterday of going long on a break of the session moving average was a dud as price didn't break that MA until afternoon and went nowhere after.  Yesterday's action was what happens when both the multi-day and multi-week cycles are hard down.  After correctly anticipating this type of action last Thursday, I incorrectly assumed the MD cycle was ready to turn up.  We are overdue for a 24Hr high; it is possible the 3:30am Central bar was a lower 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance, but we need a lower session high (due shortly after the market open) to confirm. If confirmed, this would indicate we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. We are running abnormally long into this MD cycle unless I have missed a MD cycle in between; it would be tempting to call Friday's action a MD high that ran into MW MA and monthly pivot resistance, but there is no preceding higher 24Hr low for me to designate an intervening MD low. For now I'll just go with what I have, and that is an overdue MD low. A 24Hr low is projected for 11:30am Central. Currently, price appears to have made a double bottom of 3Hr lows which may also be a session low. A session high is projected for around 9:15am Central.  Should we get a higher 24Hr low or double bottom with yesterday's 24Hr low, it will mean the MD cycle has bottomed.

A late morning or early afternoon break of the daily pivot in the 1312 area will mean the 24Hr low is in, and likely the MD low as well.  This should provide a good long entry as price will look higher for a 24Hr high due after the close and possibly its MD high for the next few days.