Good morning for June 18th. The monthly chart mid-way through the month shows price having thus far made a lower low and lower high, finding support on the MY MA and resistance at the declining MM MA. The most important question on the chart is whether the March/April double-top was also a multi-year high; how price resolves its current battle between support and resistance will go a long way in answering this question. If we are still on the upside of the MY cycle then the MY MA should continue to provide support and price will eventually break above the MM MA and challenge or eclipse the March/April highs. The bearish stochastic cross, downturning MM MA, and lower MM high (as seen on Weekly chart) lead me to believe we have seen an earlier-than-projected MY high; while this does not preclude a retest of the March highs, it does make it more likely that the MM MA will provide frequent resistance in the months ahead.
The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and higher low, finding support on the MW MA but resistance at the MM MA. Early in this week's candle, price has opened opened above the weekly and monthly pivots and made a higher high but is currently trading lower and testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A multi-month high is not projected until the first week of July. If we are on the downside of the MY cycle then the MM MA could provide soft resistance and perhaps a sideways correction rather than upside price movement until the MM high is found, but given the amount of time remaining until the projected MM high price should be able to work its way higher.
The daily chart shows price on Friday challenging Monday's high and bumping into MM MA resistance. The MM MA has provided soft resistance again today, as price has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading below the daily pivot and testing monthly pivot support. The big question on the daily chart is whether last Monday was a slightly earlier than projected MW high (odd coming out of a MM low) followed by a severely left-translated MW low (not odd coming out of a MM low), or is price still searching for a later-than-projected MW high (not odd coming out of a MM low). If last Monday was a MW high followed immediatly by its MW low then price should be on the upside of the MW cycle until it finds its next MW high (projected for 6/25). If price has not yet found the MW high then it is overdue- in fact today would be the projected date for the MW low. Unfortunately the two possibilities have contrasting outlooks price- the first scenario being bullish for the week and the latter scenario being bearish assuming price finds its MW high early in the week.
The hourly chart shows price making a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support on Friday and a 24Hr high in the first hour of Sunday evening trading. Due to the abbreviated 24Hr cycles we saw last week, we are currently overdue for a 24Hr low to be found. A shift to a more normal cycle or even a longer, right-translated 24Hr low would be expected if we are coming out of an overdue multi-day high. Because of the extreme right-translation of the MD high we are currently overdue for a projected MD low. A session low is projected for about an hour after the NY open, and a session high is projected for 12:15pm EST.
Today is a day I will step aside and watch; we are likely on the downside of the multi-day cycle, which means price should drop to the blue MD MA at a minimum over the next day or two. Currently being overdue for the 24Hr low makes it difficult to get short, however. Should price find its 24Hr low at the monthly or weekly pivot and bounce, the next lower 24Hr high would be a better place to short.
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