Market Analysis for 6/28/12

Good morning for Thursday, June 28th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, finding resistance at the monthly pivot and MM MA. Monday certainly saw a multi-day low- the question is whether it was also a multi-week low. Today price has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it at the MD MA. If Monday was a MW low, price can be expected to find soft support at the MD MA; if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD MA should break and price should retest or surpass early week lows in the next few days.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on daily pivot support Tuesday night and and a 24Hr high at the close yesterday just under the monthly pivot and MW MA.  I mentioned yesterday I had hoped to get more upside out of a move up from a multi-day low and I got it- price made a higher session low on 24Hr MA support and bolted upward through the MD MA.  Price today has found resistance at the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating we are likely on the downside of the MD cycle. While the MW MA and monthly pivot are logical places to put in a multi-day high, this was a very tepid move up out of a MD low.  More importantly, this MD high was a lower MD high than the prior one, suggesting we are on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  A 24Hr low is past due and has possibly formed at the MD MA, but a higher session low projected for between 9:45am - 11:15am Central is needed to confirm. If we are on the downside of the MD MA, it would not be surprising to see the 24Hr low right-translate and see another lower session low (or two) before the 24Hr low is found. Finding the low here on the MD MA would be bullish and suggest that Monday's low was also a multi-week low.


My expectation is that the blue MD MA will break this morning and we will trade down for most of the day, despite already being overdue for a 24Hr low.  If price continues to find support on the MD MA I will likely stay to the sidelines as I would expect a day of price being squeezed between the blue MD MA below and the white 24Hr MA above.