Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 6/11

Monday, June 11, 2012

Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 6/11

Good morning for Monday, June 11th. The monthly chart shows price this monthly bar finding soft support on the multi-year MA and attempting to test the multi-month MA from below. Thus far in the month price has made a lower low and lower high, has opened below and is trading below the monthly pivot, and has turned the MM MA downward. This is all behavior characteristic of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle and possibly the multi-year cycle, though more evidence is needed in the form of a lower multi-year high. An inability of price to get above the MM MA on a sustained basis will lend credence to this possibility.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower low and lower high than the prior week, but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the weekly pivot and MW MA. Price this week has opened well above the weekly pivot and is challenging the monthly pivot and MM MA from below. I have designated last week as a multi-month low. A multi-month high is projected for the first week of July. The behavior of price at the MM MA over the next couple of weeks will be instrumental in determining where we are in the multi-year cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, classic behavior on the upside of the MW cycle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high and is currently testing the MM MA from below. A multi-week high is projected for tomorrow and there are three possibilities: price can find its MW high on projection; price will find its MW high today, turned by the higher timeframe resistance of the MM MA; or price will right-translate its MW high coming out of a multi-month low. A multi-week low is projected for next Monday.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on Friday on MW MA support. A 24Hr high was made in Sunday evening trading. We are overdue for a 24Hr low, and the 24Hr MA currently being tested is a logical place to find it. A multi-day high is projected for Wednesday, though as mentioned in daily chart commentary higher timeframe cycles could turn a shorter-term cycle early or later. We are currently past due for a session high to be made.