Market Analysis for 6/27/12

Good morning for Wednesday, June 27th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher low and a lower high, opening below but closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot, made a higher high than yesterday, and is testing MD MA resistance. This is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. The ability of price to break through this resistance will depend on whether we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. If Monday was a multi-week low as well as a multi-day low then price should test, if not exceed, the MM MA/monthly pivot area in the coming days; if we are still searching for the MW low, price should get rejected at the MD MA or the MW MA just above.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it in the afternoon and putting in a 24Hr high. I have labeled the middle of the near double bottom as the 24Hr low and multi-day low. While each low of the double bottom meets the definition of a 24Hr low, there is no bar in between that saw a lower session high for me to label a 24Hr high. It appears another 24Hr low was put in late evening on daily pivot support, indicating we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are already overdue for a MD high, and price is currently having trouble at the MD MA. A 24Hr high is projected for around today's close, but if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle the 24Hr high could be put in early at the MD MA. A session low is projected for 10:30am EST. Should the 24Hr MA provide support for this session low it is possible another attempt to break through the MD MA could occur later in the day. Failure of the 24Hr MA or daily pivot to provide support will be an indication that the 24Hr high and likely MD high is already in.

Today is tricky to call for swing trading.  I am long from yesterday's afternoon break of the daily pivot; I expected a bigger move coming out of a multi-day low and possible multi-week low, and I could still get that move later today.  If we are still looking for the overdue MW low, however, then price stalling at the blue MD MA is exactly what it should do, and we will get another move down to the lows of the past couple days at a minimum.  For daytrading, long out of the session low due approximately an hour after the open would normally be a safe multi-hour play, especially with a  run to the 1325 or even 1330 area being a possibility.  If we have made a weak, lower multi-day high, however, the downside move of the combined MW, MD, and 24Hr cycles are swift and severe and usually overwhelm the session cycle.  I'll be on the sidelines for daytrades unless the blue MD MA is broken to the upside (where I'll look for longs) or the yellow daily pivot is broken to the downside (where I'll look for shorts).