Market Analysis for 6/19

Good morning for Tuesday, June 19th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high and finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the MM MA. Today price has opened above the daily pivot and thus far had traded within yesterday's trading  range. The question remains of whether last week saw a MW high and low made (in which case the market should be on the upside of the MW cycle until early next week) or whether the market is still searching for its MW high out of the MM low (in which case every up day is just another day closer to finding a MW high and rolling over to search for a MW low). A longer-than-projected, right-translated MW high makes more sense coming out of a MM low than a slightly shorter-than projected one; while the more "overdue" the MW high gets with each passing day makes it more likely that we have already seen a MW high and suppressed MW low, the move out of the March 2011 multi-month low before finding its MW high is comparable. Unfortunately, the only way of knowing for sure is to let price do what it is going to do.

The hourly chart shows a 24Hr low yesterday being made on monthly pivot support followed by a lower 24Hr high overnight. It is possible that a higher 24Hr low was put in early this morning on 24Hr MA and daily pivot support, though a higher session low projected for 10:15am EST  is needed to confirm. If so, this is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle.

We are overdue for a MD high and have yet to experience any behavior that indicates we have seen one other than the lower 24Hr high. While one would expect to see a lower 24Hr low and a test of the MD MA on the backside of the MD cycle, it is possible that the Sunday evening high was a MD high and that the MW and MM cycles are suppressing the corrective behavior of the downside of the MD cycle. If this is the case, the expectation for today would be for a move up as the MM, MW, MD and 24Hr cycles may all be on the upside. The alternative is that the MD and MW cycles are still searching for their highs, and while that doesn't preclude a strong move up today, it makes that move subject to a turn at any time. A session high is projected for around the NY open, and as mentioned above the session low is projected for 10:15am EST.  Going long out of that session low should provide a low risk trade with potential for a big move up if we are on the upside of multiple higher-timeframe cycles.