Tuesday 8/18/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high and close versus Friday's candle. Yesterday's close was above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs and also above the triangle downtrend line. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading below yesterday's close.

The action of the last two days has turned both the MD MA and MW MA upwards, confirming last week's low as an early multi-week low. The multi-week high is not projected until next Monday, though the MW cycle has shortened as of late for both MW highs and lows. We will see if the blue MD MA can provide support during this upturn in the MW cycle and let price lift out of this consolidation; if so, it would call into serious question my current belief that we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle. Little upside and an earlier-than-projected MW high would lend more credence to that belief.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low on weekly pivot support. It was mentioned yesterday that this would be a logical time and place for the 24Hr high to be made, but with the tightening range price had seen I felt little confidence in the ability of price to eclipse the overnight high. Price did so rather easily however, and didn't stop rising until well after the NY close.

Price in overnight and pre-market trading has dropped back to the 24Hr MA and the daily pivot where it is looking for support to put in the 24Hr low. If price is still on the upside of the multi-day cycle, then daily pivot support should hold and price should spend the rest of the day on the upside of the 24Hr cycle. We are in the timeframe for a MD high to be seen, however, and it is possible that the overnight high was also a MD high. If so, it is possible that either the 24Hr low extends in time and breaks daily pivot support, or that price makes its 24Hr low here but makes an early, lower 24Hr high this morning and then breaks daily pivot support on the downside of the next 24Hr cycle. The key will be to watch the gold Session MA for support and resistance throughout the day. As long as it is providing resistance, we are on the downside of the 24Hr cycle, and as long as it provides support we are on the upside of the cycle.