The monthly chart shows price with one week
remaining in August having made a lower high and much lower low than the the
prior month. With price currently trading below the yearly pivot and the MY MA,
I have marked the May high as the overdue multi-year high.
The questions now are when and where will price
find its overdue multi-year low? The last two MY lows came just two monthly
bars after the MY high, but an average of the last five lows came over 4 bars
after the MY high. With the MY high occurring in May (even though only being
officially recognized now), a September or October MY low would be expected.
With a multi-month low projected for the week ending October 2, a late
September/early October low would make further sense.
As to where the MY low could be seen, price is
currently at the 50% retracement level of the gains from the prior MY low;
should price rebound this week to close the month above the yearly pivot or MY
MA, it is possible that the low could be seen today. There is no magic that
says price will retrace only 50% of a move however, and even if there were, who
is to say that price will not retrace 50% of the move up from the 2009 low and
fall down to the 1140 area? The only thing that I know for sure is that when
the MY low is finally made, price will eventually make a higher multi-month low
and trade back above the MM MA, turning that average back upward. It's the
simple logic behind this market framework that has worked at every multi-year
low (and multi-month low, and multi-week low, and multi-day low) that makes it
so invaluable.
The weekly chart shows price last week making
a large move lower and closing on the MY MA. Price early in this week's candle
has opened well below its weekly pivot and trading sharply lower. With a
double-top of multi-month highs and a lower multi-month low, I have now
officially designated the May MM high as a multi-year high. As mentioned above,
a multi-month low is projected for the first weekly bar in October; while this
timeframe would coincide with the average length of the move down from a MY high
to a MY low, it is merely a projection. Price behavior will tell us far more
than projections.
The daily chart shows the ferocity of break down
from the long congestion area. A multi-week low is projected for the first week
of September. With price on the downside of the multi-month and multi-year
cycles, all rallies for the next month are likely to be capped by the weekly
pivot or green MW MA (currently near 2066 but falling sharply).
The hourly chart shows price finding resistance for
its 24Hr low at or below the white 24Hr MA and leading that average downward.
The combined force of the downsides of the MW, MM and MY cycles has overwhelmed
the multi-day cycle. Eventually the MD cycle will regain some influence, but until price is
able to trade above the 24Hr MA or daily pivot and make a higher 24Hr low, there
is no point in time projections for the cycle. Half-span shifts of the 24Hr
cycle often mark the MD low (or high) when the MD cycle is being overwhelmed.
As to the 24Hr cycle, it is possible that overnight trading saw both a 24Hr low
and 24Hr high, again under the 24Hr MA. If so, a 24Hr low will not be due until
overnight tonight, meaning another trend day down. I will keep an eye on the
possibility of a half-span 24Hr low occuring around noon instead, however, which
would likely spark a sharp counter-trend rally.
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