Monday 8/3/2015

The monthly chart shows the July candle having opened below the monthly pivot and MM MA but closing above both of those levels. Price early in this month's candle has opened above the new monthly pivot and the MM MA. As long as price remains above these levels, it is hard to argue that price is not on the upside of the multi-year cycle. We are overdue to see a multi-year high, however, and last month's double-top with the May high could mark a MY high unless price exceeds these highs.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower low an lower high but higher close, closing above the monthly and weekly pivots and the upsloping green MW MA. Price early in this candle has opened above all of these levels.

The upsloping MW MA indicates that the mid-July low was a multi-month low and that price is on the upside of the MM cycle. A MM high is projected for next week, and the expectation is that price will make new all-time highs by then. Failure to do so would likely mean that we have already seen the MM high, and that the MM high was a double top with the prior MM high; a double-top of MM highs would strongly hint that the multi-year cycle has rolled over.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high - classic price action in an uptrend. With the blue MD MA pointed upward, I have marked last Monday's low as a MW low. The MD MA should now provide support for any pullback until price reaches its multi-week high. The MW high is not projected until 8/12, and with price on the upside of both the MW and MM cycles, price has no excuse not to make new highs by then.

The hourly chart shows price moving mostly sideways the last few days, with price finding support on or above the MD MA but unable to get far above the MW MA. With price currently trading below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, it would appear that price is on the downside of the multi-day cycle. A 24Hr high is not due until early afternoon, but it is possible that we have already seen an early high under 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance. If so, I would expect price to test the MD MA for support as it searches for its MD low. 

If price is indeed on the upside of the MW and MM cycles as posited above, price should make new highs on next turn in the MD cycle. A break above 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance will likely indicate that the MD cycle has turned up.