Monday 8/10/15

The monthly chart shows price in the August candle thus far making a lower high and higher low - an "inside" candle - versus the prior month. Price this month has tested and thus far found support on the MM MA and the monthly pivot. As long as price continues to find support at these levels, it indicates price is on the upside of the multi-year cycle; the weekly chart provides some earlier clues that the overdue multi-year cycle high is behind us, however.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high, higher low and lower close versus the prior week. Price closed below its weekly pivot, monthly pivot, and the MW and MM MAs, and turn the green MW MA downward in the process. Price early in this week's candle has opened below its new weekly pivot but is currently trading above it all of the higher timeframe pivots and MAs.

The downturn of the of the MW MA indicates that price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle. This in turn means that price saw an earlier than projected multi-month high, a high which matched the May high to the tick.  This double-top of MM highs indicates a strong likelihood that one of these MM highs was also the multi-year high, meaning we are now on the downside of the multi-year cycle. The past several multi-year lows have seen very shallow and brief pullbacks, with the MY low coming only a couple of months after the MY high. If the MY high was the May MM high, we are already in the timeframe to see a MY low. While it is unlikely that the July low was the MY low, a double-bottom of that low in the coming weeks could conceivably occur. A more normal multi-year downcycle, however, would see price drop down to the white MY MA or lower.

The MM high was projected for this week, and any readers of this blog know that I was fully expecting price to be at an all-time high before the cycle turned. With the market up strong to start the week, it is tempting to hope for a strong move up this week that will fulfill my prior expectations. Should that occur, it would mean that the July low was a multi-year low, a wildly bullish interpretation as it would indicate we are just starting a new multi-year cycle up. While I think a sharper pullback into a MY low is more likely, this is an alternative outcome.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday high and Friday low, closing below the weekly and monthly pivots and the MD, MW and MM MAs. With both the MD MA and MW MA pointing downward, it is evident that price is on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles. The MW high was projected for tomorrow but instead came on 7/31 in a half-span shift of the cycle high. The MW low is projected for 8/18. With price on the downside of the MM and MW cycles, any rallies should find resistance at the monthly pivot, the MW MA/MM MA convergence area, or the downtrend line from the July highs.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making its 24Hr high against daily pivot resistance and dropping down into its 24Hr low which came one hour past projection. Price has since rallied sharply and is currently testing the monthly pivot and the MW MA from below; this sharp rise indicates that price is on the upside of the MD cycle, and I have marked Friday's low as the MD low. A multi-day high is projected for tomorrow after the close, but resistance from the MW MA and monthly pivot could see this high put in early. A 24Hr high was projected for the prior bar, and it is quite possible that the high was indeed seen at this higher timeframe resistance. Price in the timeframe to turn down for a session low; a break of the trendline should indicate that the 24Hr high has been seen.