Friday 8/7/2015 - Rallies are now to be shorted

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low with price closing below the weekly and monthly pivots and the the MD and MW MAs. With both moving averages now pointing downward, along with a lower multi-week high, it is apparent we are on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles. The double-top of multi-month highs also makes it extremely likely that we are on the downside of the multi-year cycle. More detailed discussion of this will come in Monday's blog post, but the absolute minimum expectation for a decline would be a retest of the early July low to attempt a double-bottom of multi-month lows.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high just above daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance before falling sharply into its 24Hr low early in the afternoon. Price rallied in overnight trading where it put in an early 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and is now retesting yesterday's low. This behavior indicates price is still on the downside of the multi-day cycle.

 A 24Hr low is projected for early afternoon, and we will see if price can double-bottom with yesterday's low to put in the multi-day low which is projected to be the next MD low. It is possible, however, that we will see the MD cycle extend in time if price is indeed on the downside of the MW, MM and MY cycles. Should price find its MD low, I would expect any rallies into the MD high to be capped at the MD/MW MA confluence area at 2090 which would provide a good shorting opportunity.