The monthly chart shows price thus far in August
having made a lower high and higher low versus July's candle. Price is
currently trading just below the monthly pivot and just above the MM MA, and the
MM MA is starting to flatten out. It remains unclear if the May/July double top
marked a multi-year high or if that high has yet to be seen. When the MY high
is in, price should trade below the MM MA and turn that MA downward. Price
would then be expected to test the white MY MA for support (currently nearly 100
points lower).
The weekly chart shows price last week making a
lower high and lower low but higher close than the prior week. Price early in
this week's candle has opened above its weekly pivot and is trading near the
levels of the monthly pivot and MW MA. As with the monthly chart, the weekly
chart is unclear as to whether the May/July highs were a multi-year high; it is
unclear even where we are in the multi-month cycle, as price has traded mostly
sideways for several months now. My belief is that we are currently on the
downside of the multi-month cycle, with the MM low not projected until October.
If May/July marked a multi-year high and we are
currently on the downside of the multi-year cycle AND the multi-month cycle, I
would expect price to be falling sharply rather than trading sideways.
Corrections in time rather than price during the downsides of any cycle are
usually extremely bullish and lead to sharp moves up once the cycle low is
found. Thus, while it is my expectation that price will trade lower out of this
range, I am open to the possibility that a resolution to the upside will lead to
a large move higher.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
Wednesday low, a somewhat unusual occurrence that often marks a multi-week low;
while the MW low is not projected until tomorrow, it remains a possibility that
Wednesday was indeed an early MW low. Price today has opened above the daily
pivot and tested the upper triangle boundary but is currently trading below its
daily pivot and is testing MD MA and weekly pivot support.
If price is on the downside of the multi-year
cycle, price should make a lower multi-month low, which is why I expect price to
take out the early July low before the projected October multi-month low.
Failure to do so would indicate that either we have not yet seen the multi-year
high, or that we have already seen the multi-year low. Either scenario would be
bullish (the latter even more so), which is why I would expect any surprise
upside resolution to the multi-month trading range to lead to a significant move
up. With so much possible downside and yet the potential for a large move
upward, there is zero need to be a hero while price remains within the triangle
pattern; when price gives evidence of its intention there will be plenty of time
(and price) left to participate.
The hourly chart shows price having made a
multi-day low on Wednesday of last week and then trading mostly sideways since,
with price finding resistance at the MW MA and support at the weekly pivot or MD
MA. The designations of MD highs and lows is becoming difficult as price
whipsaws in a narrow range toward the apex of the triangle pattern shown on the
daily chart. Price appears to have made a 24Hr high in overnight trading and is
currently trading lower in search of its 24Hr low which is slightly overdue; the
weekly pivot would be a logical place for the 24Hr low to be made. With the
trading range narrowing and only about ten points between the MW MA resistance
and weekly pivot support, today could be a good day to run some errands or read
a book - anything to get one away from the trading screen until price breaks out
of this range.
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