Thursday 8/6/2015 -

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Tuesday's candle. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and lower high. It would appear that price is on the upside of the multi-day cycle, but the status of the MW cycle is still in question.

The blue MD MA is starting to flatten out; should price fail to move up and carry this average upward, it will indicate that price is on the downside of the multi-week cycle. The green MW MA is already pointed downward (though it is not on the more important weekly chart); while some wiggle is allowed for on the daily chart, it is important that price quickly regain this MA and turn it upward or it would indicate that price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle. In both of these cases, it would indicate that the cycle highs came early and were double tops with prior cycle highs. This would be the strongest indication that the higher timeframe multi-year cycle has seen its high and is turning downward. Price still has until the middle of next week (the projected timeframe for the MW and MM high) to make new all-time highs, but failure to do so would be a bearish scenario.

The hourly chart shows price surging after the NY close Tuesday until late morning yesterday where it found its 24Hr high exactly 24 bars after the prior 24Hr high; I had expected that this high would extend until later in the day given the assumption that price was on the upside of the MD, MW and MM cycles, and that the MD cycle itself would extend in time to give price more time to eclipse Friday's MD high. The reason for this belief is that a lower MD high would indicate that price is on the downside of the MW cycle, a bearish scenario as explained above. Price, however, dipped back below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA overnight, a signal that we are already on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for late morning, and if this is a lower 24Hr high it will confirm that price is on the downside of the MD and MW cycles.

Can today be the day that the 24Hr cycle extends in time, allowing price to take out Friday's high indicating that we are indeed still on the upside of the MD and MW cycles? Of course it can, but failure to do so sets off a chain reaction of arguments for the bearish case.