Wednesday 3/2/16

Price yesterday made a slightly lower low but sharply higher high and close versus Monday as price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  The question remains whether price is continuing to search for an overdue MW high or if price is on the upside of a fairly new MW high.  Being one full week past the projected MW high is not unheard of, but it is starting to lean my opinion toward the market having seen a "stealth" MW high and low in February.  Should a MW high not be seen today (Wednesday's often mark MW highs and lows) or by Monday (for a typical Monday high/Friday low scenario in a MW downtrend), then we must assume that longer-term cycles were so strong that they muted the downturn of the MW cycle in February. This would be extremely bullish in that it would not only mean that price should rise into mid-March before seeing its next MW high, but it would indicate that price is likely on the upside of the multi-month and multi-year cycles as well. 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the day and into overnight trading as it surged out of its MD low.  It was mentioned yesterday that price had no excuse not to take out the recent highs if price were indeed on the upside of the MW cycle, and it did not disappoint the bulls.   Price is now searching for its 24Hr low; if price is still on the upside of the MD cycle, the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot should provide support for this low.  Failure of price to find support at the daily pivot would indicate that price is on the downside of the MD cycle and price would then be expected to visit the MD MA.  Given the potential overdue nature of the MW high, it is also possible that the next MD high will be a MW high, and price will test the MW MA before finding a low.