Monday 3/21/16

The monthly chart shows price thus far in March having made a higher low and higher high versus February with price now trading back above the MM and MY MAs and the monthly and yearly pivots. This candle is shaping up to be very similar to last October's, when we saw a nearly identical move that stalled out the next month and eventually saw new lows.  While it is possible that one of these moves was out of a multi-year low, by definition it is impossible for both to have been multi-year lows.  Unfortunately I will have to wait for further price action to determine when (or if) the MY low was seen.

 

 

 

The weekly chart shows price last week continuing its recent string of higher low-, higher high- and higher-close candles.  We are obviously on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and if the late December/early January test of the MM MA was a MM high then we are in the timeframe to see a MM high.  It is important to remember that cycle highs and lows can come way before or after the projections; in fact, it is possible that we are just extremely overdue to see the first MM high after the November MM high.

 

When the MM high is in, price will first trade below its weekly pivot and then trade below the MW MA and turn that average lower. The bears will then have much heavy lifting (or pushing) to do, as price will have the MY MA , MM MA, and monthly pivot below all acting as potential support for the next MM low projected for the first week of May.

 

 

 

The daily chart shows price finding support on the upsloping MD MA several times last week as price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  As has been mentioned far too often in the daily chart discussions, we are either overdue to see a MW high or one is not projected until next Monday.  The MW highs have been difficult to discern because the MW lows have been so shallow.   I expect this to end when price finds its multi-month high, as that higher timeframe cycle will no longer be supporting price.  It is very likely that when price eventually breaks below the MD MA to mark the MW high that it will also mark the MM high, meaning a more substantial decline will be at hand. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high at noon on Friday and drifting below daily pivot and 24Hr MA support in Sunday evening trading.  We made a 24Hr low several hours ago and price then rallied above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and eclipsed Friday's high.  Price has since pulled back to dailiy pivot/24Hr MA support, and unless we have seen an early 24Hr high price should find support here to move higher into its projected early afternoon high.

 

We are in the timeframe to expect a multi-day high to be seen, so it is very possible that today's 24Hr high will also mark the MD high.  Should price fail to find support at current levels and take out the overnight low, it would hint that price is already on the downside of the MD cycle and we should expect price to test the weekly pivot or MD MA today or tomorrow.  Given the possibility that we are also due to see a MW high and MM high, one can see how a simple 24Hr high could turn into the launch point for a significant downside move.