Price yesterday took a wild ride, making a sharply
higher high and sharply lower low versus Wednesday before closing
little-changed. Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and
eclipsed yesterday's high, indicating that price is on the upside of the
multi-week cycle.
The extreme upward pressure has muted the
multi-week cycle so that the MW low is indiscernible; this is no small feat and
makes a strong argument that higher timeframe cycles are strongly on the
upswing, in this case the multi-month and multi-year cycles. Whether the
February test of the MW MA or this week's test of the weekly pivot marked a MW
low is unclear, but one of them must be the overdue MW low. If it was the
February hiccup in price, the MW high is projected for next Tuesday; if last
Friday was the MW high, the next MW high will not be due until the end of
March.
It was mentioned yesterday that the hourly chart
had already been acting abnormally, with price chopping above and below pivots
and MAs that normally act as visible support or resistance. This behavior was
amplified yesterday, with price surging to a 24Hr high before the NY open and
then plummeting into a 24Hr low in mid-afternoon. Price rallied back to the MD
MA and 24Hr MA at the close, and one would have been forgiven for expecting
price to find resistance at this level. Instead, price blasted through this
resistance in overnight trading and has taken out yesterday's high.
A 24Hr high is projected for the next hourly bar,
but with price having made a double-top of 3Hr highs at the 2011.50 level and
now testing the Session MA, it is possible that the high has been seen. Should
the Session MA fail to support price, we can assume that the 24Hr high is in and
that price will decline down to the 24Hr MA or daily pivot before finding its
24Hr low, projected for late afternoon.
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