The daily chart shows price yesterday making a
lower high and lower low but closing little-changed compared to Monday. Price
thus far today has made a slightly higher high but is currently trading slightly
below yesterday's close as the market appears to be in a holding pattern prior
to the Fed decision on rates this afternoon.
Fed days are notoriously difficult to trade, and
the very narrow range we have seen leading up to this one will likely make
things worse. I expect that price will show an extreme reaction to the news, likely initially in a false direction before reversing for a sharp move in
the "real" direction. When coupled with the uncertainty of how far we are into
this MW cycle, I will not feel confident initiating any swing trades, but a
close below the MD MA will likely have me going short tomorrow for a move down
into a potential MW low.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding its
24Hr low just above weekly pivot support and then rising into the close. A
lower 24Hr high was seen just after the NY close, which confirms Monday's high
as a multi-day high. A 24Hr low is projected for noon. If we are still on the
downside of the MD cycle, price should retest or take out yesterday's low, but if
yesterday was also the MD low then price should find support here at the daily
pivot/24Hr MA for an early 24Hr low. I expect price to trade mostly in a
sideways pattern today until the Fed decision unleashes a lot of pent-up
volatility.
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