Thursday 3/24/16

Price yesterday made a lower high, lower low and lower close versus Tuesday's candle, closing below the MD MA in the process. Thus far today price has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower low and is trading below the weekly pivot.   This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-week cycle.

 

The next multi-week low is projected for 4/1, and price should be expected to test the green MW MA before then.  The prior MW low did not make this test, however, as the upward strength of the multi-month cycle muted the downturn of the MW cycle.  We are in the timing window for a MM high this time, however, so it is very possible that Tuesday was not only a MW high but also a MM high; if this is the case price should be expected to test the MM MA or even the monthly pivot as it searches for its MM low projected for the first week of May.  How price reacts at the MW MA and how high price can bounce out of its eventual MW low will tell us whether we are on the downside of the MM cycle.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot and 24Hr MA in pre-market trading and then making an early, lower 24Hr high just three bars later. Soon after we broke 24Hr MA and daily pivot support and quickly dropped to the MD MA.  Little support was found there, however, and we dropped to the weekly pivot at the close.  Price in overnight and pre-market trading broke through this support as well, giving a strong clue that Tuesday was a multi-week high and we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.

 

We are overdue to see a 24Hr low. We are in the timing window to possibly see a MD low, and the MW MA could easily provide support for this low.  It should also provide support for the MW low if price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle, but if we are on the downside of the MM cycle it will be interesting to see if the MD cycle becomes just as muted on the downside as it was on the upside during the recent rally.  As mentioned above, how price reacts to the MW MA will provide us with important information.

 

 

As an aside, I had mentioned in yesterday's hourly commentary that the 24Hr high was due early afternoon but failed to mention that with the MD high so overdue we could see an early 24Hr high and a break of daily pivot/24Hr MA support.  I had written of this possibility in Monday's and Tuesday's blog and, quite frankly, was tired of repeating myself.  Cycles by definition involve a large amount of repetition, and I try to make the commentary make some sense to any potential first-time reader which also means repeating many key elements of this particular style of cycle analysis. The fact that I am more frequently getting tired of this repetition is a sign that I am again suffering from blog burnout and need to take a break.  My plan is to turn the blog into a weekly effort posted on Sunday nights or before Monday's NY open. Whether it reverts back to a daily blog or disappears from there will depend on whether the weekly format eases my burnout.