The monthly chart show price having made a higher
low and higher high versus February with price currently trading just above the
MY MA and just below the yearly pivot. Price is trading above the monthly pivot
and MM MA and if it can close the month above these levels it will be a hint
that we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle. If so, it would mean that
last month saw a MY low and we should expect price to rise into August of this
year. Should price reverse in the next three weeks it will keep open the
uncertainty of whether we saw a MY low last August and are currently on the
downside of a fresh MY cycle whose low is not due until November.
The weekly chart shows price last week making a
higher low and higher high, closing above the MY MA as price continued on the
upside of the multi-month cycle. It had been unclear whether price was overdue
for a MM high or whether there was an intervening, muted MM cycle and the MM
high is not due until next week. At this point we are so overdue that it
appears likely that there was an intervening cycle, but it has also become
irrelevant as we are now in the timeframe to see a MW high regardless.
We must assume that price is on the upside of the
MM cycle until price shows us otherwise, and it will eventually do so by close
below its weekly pivot and MW MA and turning that MA lower as we search for the
MM low projected for early May.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
somewhat rare Thursday low and Friday high. A quick test showed that this has
happened 19 times since 1996, and while price was higher one month later in 11
of those cases, two of the 8 losers had price down 16.5% and 25.1% one month
later. Given that we are in the timeframe to be seeing a MM high shortly and
are currently unsure as to where we are in the MY cycle, the above statistic
becomes a little more interesting.
Because of the strength of the move up off of the
February MM low, the downside of the MW cycle was steamrolled and leaves us
guessing where the MW low may have been. If a MW high and low occurred in
February, then the next MW high is projected for tomorrow. If the MW high
occurred early March then the next MW high is not projected until 3/28.
This muting of the MW cycle does not occur too
often and usually indicates that both the MM and MY cycles are strongly on the
upside. This could certainly be the case, and while the monthly chart is
inconclusive it at least has signs of hope for the bulls. It must be remembered
however, that when the MM cycle starts to roll over, the MW cycle will no longer
be muted. Price will eventually close below the blue MD MA and turn that MA
lower as price searches for its MW (and MM) low.
The hourly chart shows price rising out of its
Thursday MD (and MW?) low and rising into Friday's close. It appears that a
muted 24Hr high and low were seen Friday a.m. and price then made an early 24Hr
high at Friday's close. Price has since drifted modestly lower, and we are
currently in the timeframe for price to see a 24Hr low. We would expect price
to find support for its 24Hr low at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle. Failure to do
so will indicate that price is now on the downside of the MD cycle, though much
like the MW cycle, the MD cycle has been extremely tame lately. A close above
the Session MA and a turn of that average higher will indicate that the 24Hr low
has been seen, and the 24Hr high is projected for the close.
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