Tuesday 10/27/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October thus far having made a higher low and higher high versus September.   It had been mentioned two weeks ago that while price trading above the MM MA and MY MA was a bullish sign, it would be much more meaningful if price were able to close the month above these levels; we are in the final trading days of the month now, and price is still holding strong.  I've seen price make seemingly crazy moves in the final few days of a monthly bar, however, so a close above all higher-timeframe pivots and MAs is not a given.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low, high and close for the third straight week.  Price early in this week's candle has been little changed from last week's close. We have yet to see any evidence that price has seen its overdue multi-month high.  With a multi-month low projected for mid-November, it appears likely that we are seeing a bullish right-translation to the multi-month cycle.  Right-translated highs are a sign of bullish strength and would give credence to the belief that the August low was a multi-year low.   Note also that the pink MM MA has turned upward, another indication that the MY low has been seen.

While the evidence mounts that we are again on the upside of the multi-year cycle, it does not mean that this rally will last forever; it does mean that corrections into the MM low should be used to go long for what should be new all-time highs by year end.  When the multi-month high has been seen, price will trade below the green MW MA and likely test the MY MA or MM MA as it searches for its MM low.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday low and Friday high for the second straight week, a pattern usually reserved for multi-week lows.  Price appears to be stalling at the upper channel trendline and the underside of July/August congestion.   The MW high is not projected to be seen until 11/4, but it was mentioned last week that it is possible that we could see a half-span shift of the MW high which would likely also mark the overdue MM high.  Thus far there is no evidence of this happening, however.  Market-moving news in the form of AAPL earnings will hit after today's close, and we should know then whether we will see a rally into early November or a half-span high that marks the start of a correction into mid-November.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a MD high, but while price found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA for its 24Hr high on Monday, it has also refused to break lower to test the MD MA.  This is abnormal behavior that been seen frequently during this move up out of the September retest lows.  We are already due for a multi-day low to be seen, and whether price will show normal behavior and trade down to the MD MA today is anyone's guess; while shorting the downside of the MD cycle has been an exercise in futility lately, the odds are still on the side of price trading lower throughout the day and testing the MD MA today or tomorrow.