The daily chart shows price yesterday making a
slightly higher high and close versus Friday's candle as price continues to show
no signs of weakness. Price today has thus far made a slightly slower high but
is little changed versus yesterday.
As mentioned yesterday, it is unclear whether last
week's brief dip below the MD MA constituted a multi-week high and low. The
longer price goes from here without a deeper pullback, the more likely it is
that we are on the upside of a new MW cycle. Should we be on the upside of a
fresh MW cycle, price has plenty of time to get back to the July/August
congestion area or even make a new all-time high before the next cycle
downturn. More importantly, the muted MW low indicates that we are on the
upside of powerful longer-term cycles- the multi-month and multi-year
cycles. This means that regardless of how high this particular MW cycle takes us,
new all-time highs should be seen by year's end.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday churning
above and below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. The slightly lower 24Hr low seen
just after the close means that we have seen a multi-day high, but price again
refuses to behave normally and drop down to the MD MA for its MD low. This is
yet another indication that strong higher-timeframe cycles are overwhelming the
shorter cycles. While this behavior is not normal, that does not make it rare;
the multi-month cycle will eventually lose steam and start to top out, enabling
the MW and MD cycles to assert themselves again.
As for today, a 24Hr low is projected for late
morning and we are overdue for a MD low to be seen. Given the underlying
strength in this market, however, it would not surprise me if yesterday was the
MD low and that we have already seen the 24Hr low several bars ago. The daily
cycle has gotten very choppy, and the 24Hr MA has been unable to pull away from
the daily pivot. Until price begins to show a more normal daily cycle, I will
refrain from doing any daytrades or scalps.
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