Monday 10/19/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October thus far having made a higher low and higher high. After opening below the monthly pivot, yearly pivot and the MM and MY MAs, price is now trading above all of these levels.  The fact that price was able to regain all of these higher-timeframe support/resistance levels makes a strong case for the August low having been a multi-year low, though the ability to close the month above these levels will be far more important.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  The MM high is past due, and the MM low is projected for the week ending 11/13.  When the MM high has been seen, price will then trade below its weekly pivot and the green MW MA and then turn that MA downward.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Wednesday low and Friday high, a fairly uncommon scenario.  Wednesday lows usually occur at multi-week lows, and price did trade below the MD MA on that day; given that we had been overdue for the MW high and should have been falling into a MW low, it is possible that last Tuesday was a MW high and Wednesday was a MW low made on what was then the weekly pivot.   If so, it is yet another sign of the strength of the cycles that are pushing price upward; this would be further evidence that price is now on the upside of the multi-year cycle.

If we have already seen the MW high and low, the next MW high would not be projected until the first week of November. Given that we are overdue for the MM high, however, it is possible that we could see a half-span shift in the MW cycle, meaning the MW (and MM) high would come in around 10/26.  In any case, price has plenty of time left on the upside of the MW cycle to reach the upper channel boundary and overhead resistance from July/August. 

There is a possibility that last week's brief dip did not mark a MW high and low, and that price will soon fall back below the MD MA and turn that average downward as price searches for its overdue MW low.   Given the overdue nature of the MW high, however, unless price drops early this week it will be difficult to imagine that the MW high and low were not already seen.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low on Wednesday and then riding 24Hr MA support higher the remainder of the week.    Price found support on the 24Hr MA numerous times in Sunday evening trading and it is unclear whether a 24Hr high and subsequent 24Hr low were seen after Friday's close.  It does appear likely that a 24Hr high was seen overnight as price has finally broken 24Hr MA support.   A 24Hr low is not projected until near today's close.

We are in the timeframe for a MD high to be seen, so it is very possible that the pre-market 24Hr high was also a MD high.   If so, price should test the weekly pivot before finding its MD low.  A move lower down to the MD MA would also not be out of the question.  Should those areas fail to support price, it would indicate that last week did not see a turn in the MW cycle and that instead this morning was the MW high.   If this is the case, it lessens the strength of the argument that the MY low was seen in August, but we will address that if the situation arises.