Monday 10/12/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far this month having made a higher low and higher high versus September.  Price is currently trading above the MM and MY MAs and the monthly and yearly pivot, bullish behavior that supports the notion that the August low was also a multi-year low.  Should price be trading above these levels at the month's close, it will carry far more weight than it does now, but the bulls have certainly had the upper hand thus far in October.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high versus the prior bar, closing up strongly above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs.  We are in the timeframe to see a multi-month high, and it seems very likely that it will be a lower MM high versus the July MM high.  The more important issue will be where price makes its next MM low, projected for 11/13.  A higher MM low would confirm the August low as a multi-year low and be extremely bullish for stocks.   Needless to say, a lower MM low means price will be falling more than 200 S&P points from current levels.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, typical bullish behavior in an uptrend.   We are slightly overdue to see a multi-week high, but price shows no indications yet that the high has been seen.   When the MW high has been made, price will trade below the blue MD MA and turn that average downward as price searches for support for its MW low which is projected for 10/16.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high before the NY open on Friday, but dropping only slightly before making its 24Hr low several bars later.  After uneventful Sunday evening trading, price has traded sideways along the daily pivot and the 24Hr MA.

We are in the timeframe to see a multi-day high being made, and It is unclear whether the brief pop in price several bars ago was a lower 24Hr high; if so, price should break below daily pivot/24Hr MA support and trade down over the next several days to test the MD MA.   Since we are also in the timeframe to see a MW and MM high being made, the decline could be much more severe, possibly even taking out the August lows in the weeks ahead.  While there is no guarantee that we will not see one more MD cycle before seeing a MM and MW high, a clear break of 24Hr MA support should provide a very profitable shorting opportunity.