Thursday 10/15/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low versus Tuesday's candle and closing below the MD MA.  Price today opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading above it and testing the MD MA from below.

The Friday/Tuesday double top was likely a multi-week top, as price has traded below the MD MA and has caused that average to flatten.  The MW low is projected for tomorrow. It is possible that the weekly pivot has provided support for that low to be seen yesterday; if so, the weekly pivot acting as support for the MW low would indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and price would likely have another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks (half span or full MW cycle) of upside before the MM high is seen.   If the MW high was also a MM high, I would expect weekly pivot support to break and price to test the MW MA before finding support for its MW low.  A lower MW high would then follow and price would have another leg down before the projected mid-November MM low.

I am currently short, and a break below yesterday's low will be an opportunity to add to those shorts; a move above Tuesday's high will force me to exit my shorts at a loss and go long.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr low at daily pivot resistance and then dropping down to the weekly pivot where it found support for its 24Hr low.  Price moved higher overnight, trading through daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance; this indicates that yesterday's low was likely a MD low.  Price found resistance overnight/pre-market at the MD MA; while the 24Hr high is not projected until late morning, it is possible that MD MA resistance has put in the 24Hr high early.   If so, we should see a lower Session high by late morning and then price will probe lower for its 24Hr low. If price finds support for its 24Hr low on or above the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, it will indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  We would then expect price to trade higher and again attempt to break MD MA resistance.