Monday 10/5/2015

The monthly chart shows price in September having closed below its monthly pivot, yearly pivot, and MM and MY MAs.  Price early in this month's candle has opened below its monthly pivot but is currently trading higher and testing the MM MA for resistance.

With price having made a multi-year high in May, price has traded below the pink MM MA and led that average lower as price seeks out support for its multi-year low.  We are already past projection for the MY low; in fact, price saw an inversion in which its MY high carried past projection and came at the projection date for the MY low.   Inversions can obviously be seen more frequently on the smaller timeframe charts, and they often result in the next cycle peak/trough occurring a half-cycle span later.   If that were to be the case here, the MY low may not be seen until December or January.   It could be, of course, that the MY low was already seen in August, but price has not yet given us enough evidence to assume this is the case. While price closing above its monthly pivot would be such evidence, trading above it this early in the month means little.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low but higher close versus the prior week's candle.    Price early in this week's bar has opened well above its weekly pivot and the MW MA and has made a higher high. This week is the projected candle for the multi-month high to be seen.   It is possible that the high has already been seen (the bar marked with a "?"), but we will see where this rally takes us before making that determination. Unless the MY low has been seen, price should find resistance at the MM MA or MY MA. The ability of price to trade above those higher timeframe resistance areas would make a strong argument for the bulls.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Friday high which is very bullish behavior.  Price was able to close above the monthly and weekly pivots and with today's action (though very early in the candle) has turned the MD MA upward.   This is all behavior associated with price being on the upside of the MW (and perhaps MM) cycle, and I have marked last week's low as a MW low. A MW high is projected for tomorrow, and the MM MA is a logical place for the MW high to be seen, just as it provided resistance for the prior MW high. The ability of price to eclipse the prior MW high and perhaps trade to the upper channel resistance line would be a more bullish result that would strengthen the argument that the August low was a MY low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the jobs data was released and plummeting on the news to make a 24Hr low (and MD low). Price then rallied sharply throughout the day and has continued to drift higher in Sunday evening and pre-market trading. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and a 24Hr low is projected for shortly after the open.

We would normally expect to see at least one more daily cycle before seeing a MD high, but with the MW high projected for tomorrow and price trading at the MM MA, it is possible that the next 24Hr high will also be a MD high. If so, the ball will be back in the bear's court and the remainder of the day should see sharp selling. If the MW high comes in on projection (or even extends), price should find a 24Hr low on or even above the 24Hr MA before noon today and trade higher for the remainder of the day.