Weekly Analysis and Pre-market Analysis for 7/2/12

Good morning for Monday, July 2nd. The monthly chart shows June having made a lower low and lower high than the prior bar but finding soft support on the MY MA and closing above the monthly pivot and (barely) the MM MA. Price this month has opened above the monthly pivot and MM MA. If price can hold above the MM MA then it becomes less likely that March was an earlier-than-projected multi-year high, and price should retest or exceed the March highs. A turn below the MM MA indicating it is acting as soft resistance will increase the odds that March was a MY high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and lower low but finding soft support on the MW MA and closing above the weekly pivot. Price this week has opened above the weekly pivot. We are overdue to find a multi-month high, though if the recent multi-month low were to be center-translated we could have another several weeks before finding the MM high.

The daily chart shows price making a Monday low and Friday high, typical behavior during the upside of large timeframe cycles. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high. A multi-week high is projected for the July 4th holiday; coming out of a multi-month low, it would be natural for the MW high to right-translate beyond the projected window.

The hourly chart shows price with a trend day higher on Friday before putting in a 24Hr high in Sunday evening trading. Price has possibly put in an overdue 24Hr low overnight as well, but a higher session low is needed to confirm. We are in the timeframe (or possibly overdue) to see a session low. It is possible that the 7:30am Central bar was that session low. A session high is projected for 10:00am Central.


If we have seen (or will shortly see) a higher session low, I would expect price to trade higher throughout the day and take out the Sunday evening 24Hr high.