Bruce's Weekly Projection and Pre-Market Analysis for 7/16/2012

Good morning for Monday, July 16th. The monthly chart midway through July shows price having opened above the monthly pivot and MM MA and thus far having made a higher low and higher high. The MM MA is downturned, which leads us to the same old question on this chart of whether the March high was a multi-year high; there is not yet enough evidence to answer that question, so we must wait for price to tell us more.  

The weekly chart shows price last week opening below the weekly pivot, making a lower high and lower low, and finding support on the Monthly pivot and MM MA. Price this bar has opened above the weekly pivot and is attempting to find support there. We are overdue for a multi-month high, and it is possible that the 7/6/12 bar is that high; if so, it is a lower MMH which obviously has bearish implications. It is possible that we are still searching for the MMH, in which case price should soon take out the early July highs before then correcting to find its MML projected for mid-August.

The daily chart shows price late last week finding support on the monthly pivot and MM MA and bouncing back above the MD and MW MAs. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far had an inside day. The MW MA has turned up slightly and stochastics have crossed, indicating that Thursday was likely a MW low. A Multi-week high is projected for this Friday.

The hourly chart shows price making a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support Friday morning and surging higher into its 24Hr high near the close. We are currently in the timeframe for a 24Hr low to be made, and price is attempting to find support on the 24Hr MA. Should we make a 24Hr low on either 24Hr MA or daily pivot support, it would indicate we are still on the upside of the MD cycle. We are in the window (or slightly past) to see a MD high, and a MD low is projected for Tuesday evening; if we are coming out of a MW low, however, it would be normal to see the MDH right-translate. It appears that price has made a session low on the 24Hr MA, though the session cycle is somewhat unclear as the session MA has flattened out and price has been chopping above and below it since last evening.