Good morning for Thursday, July 12th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and has also made a lower high and lower low thus far. Price is obviously still on the downside of the MW cycle, though we are in the window in which I would expect to see a MW low made. The MW MA has turned down, which could mean the overdue MM high has been seen and that we are on the downside of the MM cycle, though more evidence is needed for that declaration. Price is currently testing the monthly pivot and MM MA, an area which should provide support to turn the lower timeframe cycles.
The hourly chart shows price making a lower 24Hr low near the close, quickly followed by a very premature 24Hr high just after the close. A 24Hr low is projected for early afternoon today, and a MD low is projected for overnight; it is possible, however, that these cycles could get turned earlier than projected by higher timeframe support currently being tested. A session cycle low is projected for just after the NY open. It is interesting that the last 3Hr low at 7:00am EST was lower than the the session low at 4:00am, giving the appearance thus far of a half-span session low made on higher timeframe support. Note also that a trendline drawn from the last Thursday's MD high runs fairly parallel with the MD MA, something that tends to occur near the end of moves.
Yesterday's post mentioned that we were likely going to visit the monthly pivot before turning the MD and MW cycles, and we have touched that pivot this morning. While we could take one more trip lower by mid-day, I expect the monthly pivot and multi-month MA to provide support for a sharp multi-day bounce.
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