Market Analysis for 7/31/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it. Having made a higher MW low and eclipsed the prior MW high, price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles; a multi-week high is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price correcting sideways since Friday's 24Hr high in a series of short-cycled 24Hr highs and lows. It seems these hybrid cycles (abnormally short for 24Hr cycles, abnormally long for session cycles) are coming more and more frequently, and I am not sure what to make of them other than to hopefully figure it out after the fact when price does something more "normal". In any case, price has consistently found support on the 24Hr MA during this consolidation, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be found, and if the 24Hr high designations are correct then the overnight 24Hr high was a lower 24Hr high; we will now see whether price will finally crack the 24Hr MA and daily pivot in finding the next 24Hr low due overnight tonight.

We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low, and a session high is projected for 12:15pm EST.

I am short from yesterday and fully expect the S&P to break the daily pivot and 24Hr MA today and make a trip down to the MD MA nearly 20 points below.  A break above the highs of this congestion range (some 9 points higher) would tell me that the multi-month and multi-week cycles are up so strong that a sideways correction of the MD cycle is all that could be mustered (and would be very bullish for the market).