Market Analysis for 7/27/12

The daily chart shows yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, closing well above the MD and MW MAs and just under the weekly pivot. Price today has thus far opened well above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is still meeting some resistance at the weekly pivot. While it is still possible that this is merely a MD cycle bounce, it is looking more and more likely that the multi-week low was made earlier than projected on Wednesday on higher timeframe monthly pivot and MM MA support. If so, we have made a very slightly higher MW low to go along with the very slightly higher MW high, which would indicate that we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle but that momentum appears to be waning. A MW high is projected for next Thursday.

  

The hourly chart shows price early yesterday morning finding soft support on the daily pivot and rallying all day. Price has possibly made an overdue 24Hr high overnight just above the weekly pivot, though a lower session high projected for 9:00am EST is needed to confirm. Price has just tested and bounced off of the 24Hr MA. A 24Hr low is projected for either the NY open or 3 hrs after (I am still unsure about my 24Hr high/low designations for Wednesday). We are overdue to see a MDH, and a MDL is projected for late Monday.

Yesterday I did not take my own advice to go long on a pullback to the brown session MA projected for 11:15am (pullback actually occurred at 12:15pm), but sadly did take my own advice to short at the weekly pivot (green horizontal line on chart below) and was stopped out overnight for a small loss.  As I've said a thousand times, I'm a horrible trader.  

As for today, price seemed to have found support at the 24Hr MA an hour ago, but I find it very hard to believe that we are going to make a 24Hr low there and spend the rest of the day rallying.  With the 24Hr high and multi-day high both being extremely overdue, I will be looking to get short today and anticipate a lower open on Monday.  A break of the white 24Hr MA should provide at least 6 points of downside, and possibly a trip down to the blue multi-day moving average by Monday.