Weekly and Daily Analysis for 8/6/12

The monthly chart shows price early in the August candle opening above the monthly pivot and thus far making a higher low and higher high. This is price behavior that occurs when we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle. A multi-year high is projected for January or February of next year. Until we surpass the March highs, however, there remains the risk that we have seen a half-span shift of the MY cycle; a lower multi-month high (on the weekly chart) would have to be seen before we can give that argument any merit.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high and price this week has opened above the weekly pivot. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. A multi-month high is past due; if we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle we should surpass the prior multi-month from March before finding the multi-month high.  A multi-month low is projected for the week of 8/17.

The daily chart shows a wide green candle for Friday as price surged to a new high for the week. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Price is overdue to find a multi-week high. A multi-week low is projected for this Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price putting in a multi-day low last Thursday (marked with white arrow in blue ellipse) and trading up all day Friday until finding a 24hr high in Sunday evening trading. We are overdue to see a 24Hr low made; it is possible that the 4:30am EST candle was that low, but we need a higher session low projected for 10:30am to confirm. We are overdue to see a multi-day high, but we usually see at least two and often 3 24Hr highs made after a MD low before seeing a MD high. A 24Hr high is projected for hours after the NY close.

Any trip below the brown session MA in the 10:00am-11:00am timeframe that does not take out the 4:30am session low will indicate that we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle.  A 24Hr high is not projected until after the close, so any trading today should be done on the long side.