Market Analysis for 8/9/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday closing above the daily pivot but with an inside day compared to the prior day's candle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Today is the projection for a multi-week low, and we have yet to see price exhibit any behavior that indicates the multi-week cycle has rolled over.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low near yesterday's NY open an rallying above the daily pivot. By definition, another 24Hr high and low appear to have been made (shown with "?") before the more obvious 24Hr high that was put in overnight. This 24Hr high appears to be a double top with Tuesday's high. Yesterday I had incorrectly jumped to the conclusion that Tuesday's high was a multi-day high; while price and time may prove that true, it was an error to assume it at the time as we had not seen a lower 24Hr high that is required to confirm. A double top of 24Hr highs often marks a multi-day high, so I would expect price to start showing some signs of being on the backside of the MD cycle; currently, however, price continues to view the daily pivot as support rather than resistance. If there was no extra 24Hr low overnight, the next one is projected for 11:30am; if the overnight low (marked with a "?") was a half-span 24Hr low, then we could see a trend day down. A session low is projected for 10:45am and a session high is projected for noon.

Awful call by me yesterday. I bailed on my short positions early and managed to make money, but anyone who read my comments would likely have gotten pasted, as my declaration that a multi-day high had been made Tuesday was very premature.  In any case, the multi-day high and multi-week high are both well overdue and price shows no signs of rolling over. The double top with Tuesday's high, as well as the possible half-span shifting of the 24Hr cycle, makes me think price will break the daily pivot and visit the blue MD MA today in search of a MD low; since the MD MA has been climbing steadily upward that now provides very little downside, however. Still, if the MDH is in, today should be a trend day down through the close; if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price should bottom late a.m./early p.m and restest the overnight highs. Flip a coin.