Tuesday 1/5/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below its daily pivot and moving sharply lower, taking out the mid-December low before rallying slightly to close on the trendline formed from prior multi-month lows.  Price today has again opened below its daily pivot and is trading below yesterday's close.  

Price is certainly on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.  A MW low is projected for Thursday, but the bigger concern is the MM cycle; it is likely that we are overdue to see the MM low, meaning the impending MW low will most likely also be the MM low.  There is a slim chance, however, that we are on a new MM cycle whose low would not be expected until early March.  Price is currently testing the MY MA on both the monthly and weekly charts; if price is on the upside of the MY cycle, price should find support at this level.  Failure to do so would again give bears hope that the multi-year low has not yet been seen.

The hourly chart shows the steep decline yesterday until noon, when price found its 24Hr low. Price then rallied above its 24Hr MA and daily pivot in overnight trading where it made its 24Hr high.  While that high was just barely above the daily pivot, the fact that we were due to see a multi-day low combines to make it likely that yesterday was a MD low.  If so, price would be expected to make a higher 24Hr low by noon today, and in fact it may already have done so several hours ago.   If so, price should take out the overnight high and move higher throughout the day in search of its 24Hr high (and likely its MD high).  The confluence area of the MD MA, MW MA and monthly pivot near 2038 would be the logical place for those highs to be found.