Thursday 1/14/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high but lower low and sharply lower close versus Tuesday's candle.  The MD MA provided "soft" resistance for price yesterday, indicating that price is still on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.

We are well overdue for price to make a MW low.  The problem when cycles deviate too far from their norms is that there is nothing to say that they can't deviate even further, to the point where inversion even becomes likely; that is, at some point price is just as likely to keep falling into the projected 1/22 MW high as it to rally into it.  That being said, I don't think we are at that point yet, and the odds still say that the next MD low will also be the MW low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high at MD MA resistance.  While I even mentioned in yesterday's blog that the 24Hr high was likely to also be the overdue MD high, I failed to go short as I believed that we were on the upside of the MW cycle and would see a tame decline into a higher MD low.  That incorrect belief left me at the train station as price cratered through the daily pivot and quickly took out the prior MD low.

It appears that a 24Hr low was seen in after-hours trading.   It is unclear whether a 24Hr high and higher 24Hr low have been seen.    If so, it would mean that yesterday saw a MD low (and likely MW low) and price should rise sharply throughout the day.   If we have not yet seen the 24Hr high, however, price will likely find resistance at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot and then fall throughout the day.  Scenarios like this are extremely frustrating as there is plenty of money to be made but much of the move will be completed before it is evident which possibility is unfolding.