The monthly chart shows price thus far in January
having made a lower high and lower low, with price currently trading below the
MM and MY MAs and the monthly and yearly pivots. This is behavior indicative of
price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, and unless price can rally
soon and regain these key pivots and MAs by month's end it is likely that
August's lows will be taken out.
The weekly chart shows price last week opening
below its weekly pivot and making a lower high and sharply lower low and close
versus the prior week. Price thus far in this week's candle has opened well
below its weekly pivot and has made a lower low, as price continues on the
downside of the multi-month cycle.
We are well overdue to see a multi-month low,
unless the dip down to the white MY MA four weeks ago was a MM low. If that is
the case (I don't believe that it is), it would be very bearish and mean another
6-8 weeks of downside until the MM low would be expected. If we are still
searching for an overdue MM low as I believe, price should bottom soon and allow price to
rally into its next MM high projected for 1/22.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
Monday high and Friday low, classic behavior of price on the downside of the MW
and MM cycles. We are overdue to see a MW low, and it is reasonable to expect
that low to be seen soon. The next MW high is projected for 1/22, and I would
expect price to at least test the green MW MA before that high is seen. Price
closing above its daily pivot, then opening above its next daily pivot will be
an indication that price is on the upside of the multi-day cycle. Price trading
above the MD MA and eventually turning that average upward will be an indication
that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.
The hourly chart shows price on Friday making an
early, slightly higher lower 24Hr low but again finding resistance at the daily pivot
for its 24Hr high and selling off into the close. Price found a lower 24Hr low
in Sunday evening trading and has been rallying since. We are in the timeframe
to see a 24Hr high, and price appears to be having trouble with 24Hr MA/daily
pivot resistance, indicating price is still on the downside of the MD cycle. We
are long overdue to see a MD low, but until price can overcome 24Hr MA/daily
pivot resistance we must assume that the low has not been seen.
Today is set up
to be a trend day down, with price on the downside of the MM, MW and MD cycles. Failure of price to decline throughout the day would be an indication that the overdue MD low has finally been seen, and would likely mean the overdue MW low has been
seen as well.
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